Foundations of Risk Analysis presents the issues core to risk analysis – understanding what risk means, expressing risk, building risk models, addressing uncertainty, and applying probability models to real problems. The author provides the readers with the knowledge and basic thinking they require to successfully manage risk and uncertainty to support decision making. This updated edition reflects recent developments on risk and uncertainty concepts, representations and treatment. New material in Foundations of Risk Analysis includes: An up to date presentation of how to understand, define and describe risk based on research carried out in recent years. A new definition of the concept of vulnerability consistent with the understanding of risk. Reflections on the need for seeing beyond probabilities to measure/describe uncertainties. A presentation and discussion of a method for assessing the importance of assumptions (uncertainty factors) in the background knowledge that the subjective probabilities are based on A brief introduction to approaches that produce interval (imprecise) probabilities instead of exact probabilities. In addition the new version provides a number of other improvements, for example, concerning the use of cost-benefit analyses and the As Low As Reasonably Practicable (ALARP) principle. Foundations of Risk Analysis provides a framework for understanding, conducting and using risk analysis suitable for advanced undergraduates, graduates, analysts and researchers from statistics, engineering, finance, medicine and the physical sciences, as well as for managers facing decision making problems involving risk and uncertainty.
Полный вариант заголовка: «A treatise on the valuation of annuities and assurances on lives and survivorships : on the construction of tables of mortality and on the probabilities and expectations of life : in 2 vol. Vol. 1 / by Joshua Milne».
Полный вариант заголовка: «A treatise on the valuation of annuities and assurances on lives and survivorships : Vol. 2 : on the construction of tables of mortality and on the probabilities and expectations of life : wherein the laws of mortality that prevail in different parts of Europe are determined and the comparative mortalities of different diseases and of the 2 sexes are shown : with a variety of new tables : in 2 volumes / by Joshua Milne».
While most books on trading deal with general concepts and shy away from specifics, Forex Patterns and Probabilities provides you with real-world strategies and a rare sense of clarity about the specific mechanics of currency trading. Leading trading educator Ed Ponsi will explain the driving forces in the currency markets and will provide strategies to enter, exit, and manage successful trades. Dozens of chart examples and explanations will guide you each step of the way and allow the reader to «look over the shoulder» of a professional trader hard at work at his craft. This book provides traders with step-by-step methodologies that are based on real market tendencies. The strategies in this book are presented clearly and in detail, so that anyone who wishes to can learn how to trade like a professional. It is written in a style that is easy to understand, so that the reader can quickly learn and use the techniques provided.
Select and execute the best trades—and reduce risk Rather than teaching options from a financial perspective, How to Price and Trade Options: Identify, Analyze, and Execute the Best Trade Probabilities goes back to the Nobel Prize-winning Black-Scholes model. Written by well-known options expert Al Sherbin, it looks at the basis for probability theory in option trading and explains how to put the odds in your favor when trading options. Inside, you'll discover how anyone can «operate their own casino» if they know how through proper option strategies. Plus, a supplemental website includes videos that walk you through various probability scenarios, pre-formatted spreadsheets, and code. All investors should have a portion of their portfolio set aside for option trades. Not only do options provide great opportunities for leveraged plays, they can also help you earn larger profits with a smaller amount of cash outlay. With the help of this book, traders, active investors, and self-directed investors of all stripes will learn how simple it can be to deploy probability-based trading strategies. Teaches both defined and undefined risk strategies Utilizes simple cost basis reduction strategies to enhance investment returns Draws on unique research studies Discusses volatility to include both historical (realized) and implied volatility: the interplay between the two is a key piece of information overlooked by option traders If you're a trader of any level and want to make the best trades possible, this book has you covered.
Learn the ins-and-outs of options trading with clear, practical guidance Essential Option Strategies is an introductory guide to options trading, designed to help new options traders better understand the market and the potential opportunities that exist. This book is designed to bring you up to speed with current practices and help you implement your own option trading strategies. You'll create a plan, track indicators, and understand underlying instruments, then apply that central investing knowledge directly to the options market. The discussion on pricing determinants and probabilities uses an intuitive approach to complex calculations, providing clear examples with no advanced math required, and extensive explanation of spreads, butterflies, and condors brings advanced strategies down to earth. Easy-reference appendices clarify the Greek terms and technical analysis charts, while focused discussion and expert insight throughout provide a highly informative crash course on options trading. Options trading has undergone a rapid evolution beyond stocks and commodities into asset classes including fixed-income, precious metals, energy, and more. This book helps you build a solid foundation in the fundamentals, giving you a knowledge base that applies no matter how the instruments change. This book is designed to help you: Understand the options market inside and out Avoid common mistakes Learn some basic positions, and trades Read charts and interpret probabilities Once the domain of the elites, the options market has been thrown wide open thanks to real-time price quotes, through brokerages, and the free flow of information online. The process of buying and selling options contracts is faster and more efficient than ever, and Wall Street is facing stiff competition from independent analysts and financial websites. As much as the market has changed, the fundamentals are the same—and Essential Option Strategies aims to provide expert guidance throughout the learning process.
This study addresses the question how income affects health care utilization by the population aged 50 and over in the United States and a number of European countries with varying health care systems. The probabilities that individuals receive several medical services (visits to general practitioner, specialist, dentist, inpatient, or outpatient services) are analyzed separately using probit models. In addition to controls for income and demographic characteristics, controls for health status (both subjective and objective measures of health) are used. We analyze how the relationship between income and health care utilization varies across countries and relate these cross country differences to characteristics of the health care system, i. e., per capita total and public expenditure on health care, gate-keeping for specialist care, and copayments.
Open-Bite Malocclusion: Treatment and Stability presents the etiology, treatment, and its stability of anterior open bite malocclusion in the early, mixed, and permanent dentitions. Special emphasis is devoted to orthodontic treatment and its stability in the permanent dentition because this is the time when treatment of open bite presents greater relapse. Appropriate for clinicians, orthodontic residents, and dental students, Open-Bite Malocclusion covers the most simple treatment approaches to the most complex, from orthodontic devices to tooth extraction to surgery. Unique to this book is the discussion of post-treatment stability. Drs. Janson and Valarelli highlight the post-treatment changes and presents strategies to increase treatment stability. This allows the clinician to be able to predict the stability probabilities when treating anterior open bite malocclusions in the permanent dentition either with or without extraction, orthodontic-surgical therapy, or with occlusal adjustment.
Packed with practical tips and techniques for solving probability problems Increase your chances of acing that probability exam – or winning at the casino! Whether you're hitting the books for a probability or statistics course or hitting the tables at a casino, working out probabilities can be problematic. This book helps you even the odds. Using easy-to-understand explanations and examples, it demystifies probability – and even offers savvy tips to boost your chances of gambling success! Discover how to * Conquer combinations and permutations * Understand probability models from binomial to exponential * Make good decisions using probability * Play the odds in poker, roulette, and other games
This book serves as a comprehensive source of asymptotic results for econometric models with deterministic exogenous regressors. Such regressors include linear (more generally, piece-wise polynomial) trends, seasonally oscillating functions, and slowly varying functions including logarithmic trends, as well as some specifications of spatial matrices in the theory of spatial models. The book begins with central limit theorems (CLTs) for weighted sums of short memory linear processes. This part contains the analysis of certain operators in Lp spaces and their employment in the derivation of CLTs. The applications of CLTs are to the asymptotic distribution of various estimators for several econometric models. Among the models discussed are static linear models with slowly varying regressors, spatial models, time series autoregressions, and two nonlinear models (binary logit model and nonlinear model whose linearization contains slowly varying regressors). The estimation procedures include ordinary and nonlinear least squares, maximum likelihood, and method of moments. Additional topical coverage includes an introduction to operators, probabilities, and linear models; Lp-approximable sequences of vectors; convergence of linear and quadratic forms; regressions with slowly varying regressors; spatial models; convergence; nonlinear models; and tools for vector autoregressions.
A comprehensive and fun guide to Backgammon! Backgammon is one of the oldest games in the world, the origins of which date back some 5000 years – and it's still going strong. It enjoyed a huge resurgence in the 1970s, and then again in the 1990s with the popularity of the Internet, where millions of people play tournaments online every day. Today, backgammon's following in the UK is huge, with a dedicated British Isles Backgammon Association, and hundreds of face-to-face tournaments taking place across the UK every year. In this book, backgammon expert Chris Bray walks you through the basics of setting up a board, opening strategies, middle and end-game tactics, and tips on when to make key moves. You'll also get to grips with basic probabilities, the doubling cube and the 25% rule. And if you want to take your gaming further, there's plenty of advice to get you started in tournament backgammon, as well as playing online. Suitable for both beginners and experienced player looking for more tips and techniques, Backgammon For Dummies includes coverage on: Starting and Playing the Game Handling the Middle Game Bearing Off (The Last Lap) Varying the Play About the author
This book contributes substantively to the current state of art of macroeconomic modeling by providing a method for modeling large collections of possibly heterogeneous agents subject to nonpairwise externality called field effects, that is, feedback of aggregate effects on individual agents or agents using state-dependent strategies. By adopting a level of microeconomic description that keeps track of compositions of fractions of agents by types or strategies, time evolution of the microeconomic states is described by (backward) Chapman-Kolmogorov equations. Macroeconomic dynamics naturally arise from these equations by expansion of the solutions in some power series of the number of participants. Specification of the microeconomic transition rates thus leads to macroeconomic dynamic models. This approach provides a consistent way for dealing with multiple equilibria of macroeconomic dynamics by ergodic decomposition and associated calculations of mean first passage times, and stationary probabilities of equilibria provide further useful information on macroeconomic behavior. This book ends with a set of elaborations, sketches of further topics of research, and a collection of supporting materials in the Appendix.
Making a decision, of any importance, is never simple. On the one hand, specialists in decision theory do not come within the reach of most policy makers and, secondly, there are very few books on pragmatic decision that are not purely anecdotal. In addition, there is virtually no book that provides a link between decision-making and action. This book provides a bridge between the latest results in artificial intelligence, neurobiology, psychology and decision-making for action. What is the role of intuition or emotion? What are the main psychological biases of which we must be wary? How can we avoid being manipulated? What is the proper use of planning? How can we remain rational even if one is not an expert in probabilities? Perhaps more importantly for managers, how does one go from decision to action? So many questions fundamental to the practice of decision-making are addressed. This book dissects all issues that arise almost daily for decision-makers, at least for major decisions. Drawing on numerous examples, this book answers, in plain language and imagery, all your questions. The final chapter takes the form of a brief reminder – everything you have to remember to be a good decision-maker.
The study contributes in analytical description of spatial diffusion of fertility, in particular, influenced by labour movements of people between places of residence and work. It is assumed that the labour market has externality on the marriage market due to commuting, which, in turn, affects fertility. A model of spatial diffusion of fertility is based on assumption of global and local spillover effects. The global spillover effect, as shifts in fertility norms, is motivated by increasing variance of social interactions of an individual, when places of work and residence are different. One local spillover effect is in response to flows of earnings across space. Another mechanism is related to expected changes in probabilities to find a partner affected by differences in day and night population. The analytical model, in which the effects on fertility of the cited spillovers are decomposed, is constructed in the paper on the base of a model of the demand for children, spatial stock-flow model of a market, and a matching model with a sex imbalance or spatial mismatch as the probability of matching. Three sex imbalances, namely of night-, day-time population and an adjusted to sex imbalance of commuters to residents are empirically tested. Empirical evidence on municipal Swedish data for the period 1994–2008 does not provide any strong evidence of spatial diffusion of fertility. However, there are externalities of labour mobility on fertility due to changes of gender structure of population.
A concise, easily accessible introduction to descriptive and inferential techniques Statistical Inference: A Short Course offers a concise presentation of the essentials of basic statistics for readers seeking to acquire a working knowledge of statistical concepts, measures, and procedures. The author conducts tests on the assumption of randomness and normality, provides nonparametric methods when parametric approaches might not work. The book also explores how to determine a confidence interval for a population median while also providing coverage of ratio estimation, randomness, and causality. To ensure a thorough understanding of all key concepts, Statistical Inference provides numerous examples and solutions along with complete and precise answers to many fundamental questions, including: How do we determine that a given dataset is actually a random sample? With what level of precision and reliability can a population sample be estimated? How are probabilities determined and are they the same thing as odds? How can we predict the level of one variable from that of another? What is the strength of the relationship between two variables? The book is organized to present fundamental statistical concepts first, with later chapters exploring more advanced topics and additional statistical tests such as Distributional Hypotheses, Multinomial Chi-Square Statistics, and the Chi-Square Distribution. Each chapter includes appendices and exercises, allowing readers to test their comprehension of the presented material. Statistical Inference: A Short Course is an excellent book for courses on probability, mathematical statistics, and statistical inference at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels. The book also serves as a valuable reference for researchers and practitioners who would like to develop further insights into essential statistical tools.